Track Record: In 2021, Painter was a unanimous member of Baseball America’s Preseason High School All-America team, as voted on by amateur scouting directors. Later that summer, the Phillies drafted him 13th overall out of Calvary Christian Academy in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. They signed him for an under-slot bonus of $3.9 million. He pitched six shutout innings in his pro debut, then used his first full season to establish himself as one of the best pitching prospects in the sport. He moved from Low-A to Double-A--a rare feat for a prep pitcher in his first full year. Other pitchers to do the same include Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Dylan Bundy, Chad Billingsley and Forrest Whitley. He struck out 155 hitters in 103.2 innings and won BA’s inaugural Minor League Pitcher of the Year award. His strikeout total was good enough to lead the organization by 22. Painter also earned the Paul Owens award, given annually to the top hitter and pitcher in the Phillies’ minor league system. In 2023, he was invited to big league spring training and made one appearance before elbow pain cropped up. He made several attempts to rehab the injury before having Tommy John surgery in late July. He will likely miss all of 2024.
Scouting Report: When healthy, Painter showed an elite combination of stuff, command and poise. His fastball, which parked in the mid 90s and topped out at 101 mph, showed excellent induced vertical break and spin rates in the 2,400 rpm range. All of those factors make the pitch a potential double-plus offering. He backs the fastball with an array of offspeed weapons, the best of which is a potentially plus slider. In 2022, the pitch, which is thrown in the low 80s, produced spin rates in the range of 2,500 rpm and averaged roughly 12 inches of horizontal break. As the season wore on, he showed more conviction in the rest of his repertoire, a high-80s changeup and a high-70s curveball. The former produced respective whiff and chase rates of 55% and 38%, while the latter could blend with his slider but showed average potential at its best. He tied his pitch mix together with uncommon poise for a pitcher of his age and experience and a smooth, repeatable delivery with excellent extension. He has the potential for double-plus control, which showed up when he walked just two hitters in 28.1 innings at Double-A Reading, which is one of the most hitter-friendly atmospheres in the minor leagues.
The Future: If he had been healthy, Painter was a candidate to reach the big leagues in 2023. Now, his first start at Citizens Bank Park will not likely come until sometime in the 2025 season. If he arrives showing the same combination of stuff, control and poise he displayed in 2022, he has a chance to pitch at the front of Philadelphia’s rotation for years to come.
Scouting Grades Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 70
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