Bowl games begin this week and so do Saturday NFL games. One last weekend to ignore your family before the holidays begin. Jon Greenberg and Zac Jackson have some ideas on how to budget your time and money.
GREENBERG (1-6 last week, 45-46-1 overall): So two weeks ago, we went a combined 10-4 on our picks and this week we followed up with a predictable rout the other way, going a combined 2-10. My only win was a throwaway bet, fading your South Dakota State -20.5 prediction over Villanova. Some of my losses were close (Army-Navy under 27.5), while others were not (Dolphins -13.5, though it looked good for a second, and Packers -6.5).
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You were correct about the Saints blowing out Carolina, but not much else.
So we “beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.” I think Jimmy the Greek said that.
Bowl games start this week and I know you haven’t slept a wink as you calculate the lines.
There are six games Saturday, starting with our Ohio Bobcats playing Georgia Southern (-3.5) in Myrtle Beach. I’m not saying Tim Albin’s bunch is short-handed because of the portal, but they’re canvassing the club hockey teams to see if any of those Canadians can throw a football.
While longtime Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke is skipping a trip to Myrtle Beach in his search for a new home, Georgia Southern still has its QB1 in Davis Brin and he’s pretty good. Still, Ohio’s stingy defense should hold its own. I’ll take under 48.5.
I’ll take our guys from Jacksonville State -3 against the Raging Cajuns from Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl and over 51.5 in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl starring New Mexico State and Fresno State. All four of these teams have their starting QBs (Zion Webb, Chandler Fields, Diego Pavia and Mikey Keene, respectively) playing.
What do you like so far?
JACKSON (1-4 last week, 39-44 overall): Did you name all those quarterbacks off the top of your head? Or have you been doing hardcore analysis of low-tier bowl games?
Either way, it’s commendable.
These bowl games are a mess. The portal is the biggest reason, but bowl games have long been about motivation and availability. The lines move quickly, as do the roster and depth charts. I travel a completely unscientific path for my big-picture bowl handicapping that starts with two questions.
1. Where’s the game, and does X team have any interest in being there?
Fresno State is already 0-1 in the state of New Mexico this season and hasn’t won any game, anywhere, since Nov. 4. More generally, though, if a team would appear excited to be there, can its fanbase easily get to the bowl destination? Did a team just go from a conference championship or huge backyard rivalry at home to having to play an exhibition in somewhere like Mobile, Alabama? I’m basically searching for a base answer on which teams might want one more trophy (or jug of potatoes) and which teams might just want to get home for Christmas.
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2. What happened last year?
It’s tied to the first question. If a team lost — or even got embarrassed — in its bowl game the year before, did the staff learn from the process? Was there some motivational or geographical factor working against it? If a team didn’t play in a bowl game or is in its first bowl game (Jacksonville State), the general assumption is that it’s excited for this year and this game. And if a major conference team last year played in a major bowl and this year is playing some Conference USA or MAC team in a baseball stadium or on Tuesday at 11 a.m., that smaller-conference program becomes an immediate circle for me.
That said, I have two major thoughts for Saturday.
One, our alma mater should get slaughtered. I know Georgia Southern didn’t play well at the end of the season, but if we’re being honest, Ohio didn’t play well at all this season. And that was before much of the team hit the portal. The Bobcats might have their defensive guys, but they’re playing a third-string quarterback and they did next to nothing on offense all season. If you’re in a bowl confidence pool (and I LOVE those pools), Georgia Southern should be a high-point team. Maybe you get your under, but this could get ugly.
My great-grandpa always said never to make an 11 a.m. first day of bowl season game any kind of pick of the year, but Georgia Southern -3.5 smells like a pick of the month.
My other thought is that Miami (Ohio) also gets smoked with a third-string quarterback. Miami has won all season with incredible defense and special teams. Those things should travel in this kind of exhibition setting, but how can Miami score? Appalachian State had won four of five before getting trucked in the Sun Belt title game. Miami just played its usual game against a completely overrated Toledo team but in general survived an awful MAC East. The only Redhawk hope here is that Appalachian State is hungover from the Sun Belt title game and/or mad it didn’t get a quality bowl opponent.
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Miami’s formula gives me pause, but its starting quarterback has been out for almost two months and its MAC-winning backup hit the portal.
GREENBERG: If I’m running a bowl game — and doesn’t it sound like a dream to be a pot-bellied old man wearing an Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl blazer? — I set aside some cash to pay the quarterbacks to play. I understand how the timing for the transfer portal works, but for these early games, you can get away with playing and then transferring to secure “the bag” from Indiana or NC State. Given that ESPN owns most of the bowls, how far away are we from the network paying appearance fees?
I feel like the late games — UCLA and Boise State in another battle of third-string QBs and Cal-Texas Tech -— are fodder for degenerates who make decisions like “Who’s on TV? I’ll take the over.” Put me down for Cal +2.5 in the nightcap with the Red Raiders.
GREENBERG: Now onto the NFL, which begins with Saturday games this week. Frankly, I think Saturday games should start Thanksgiving week, but it’s nice that they’re here.
I think you have to take the Colts -1.5 over the Steelers at home, right? Pittsburgh is bad bad and let me tell you from experience, Mitch Trubisky is not the answer. The defense might need to score two touchdowns for Pittsburgh to win this game. Then again, it’s the NFL, so of course, Pittsburgh could lose home games to New England and then go win on the road in Indianapolis. (Fun fact: I was at the playoff game where Jerome Bettis fumbled, Big Ben saved a touchdown and Mike Vanderjagt missed a game-winning 46-yard field goal at the old dome. If the Colts would’ve won that game, their fans might’ve killed me and my friends in celebration.)
Yinzers hate this Steelers team so much that with Matt Canada gone, they’re turning on Mike Tomlin. (As a Bears reporter, I have to explain to my Steelers fan friends that it could be much, much worse.)
I’ll also take the Broncos +5.5 in Detroit. I saw the Lions last week and they’re not a real first-place team. Maybe they win this game, but it’ll be close.
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JACKSON: Some people argue about who the NFL’s best quarterback is. I’m on a group message that often discusses who the NFL’s worst quarterback is, and Trubisky is certainly on a short list. How can the Colts only be laying -1.5 at home? I feel like that’s off by a field goal.
I want North Dakota State at pick ’em over Montana in one FCS semifinal. Sunday night, I want Jacksonville +3 over the Ravens. Shouldn’t the Browns be favored by like six over the Bears, or is Matt Eberflus Chicago’s new hero?
I’m starting my bowl confidence pools with Oregon over Liberty and South Alabama over Eastern Michigan as my top picks, but Georgia Southern won’t be far behind. UTSA, which plays Marshall on Tuesday, is another favorite pick of mine. For this column, I’ve circled the under 53 in that one.
GREENBERG: The Bears have been feisty lately and coming off a win over Detroit, I think +3.5 is fair and I’ll take it. In retrospect, I wish I would’ve made plans to cover the Greenberg-Jackson Bowl on the shores of Lake Erie. Who knew Chicago’s playoff hopes would still be alive? This game is critical, in my mind, for Justin Fields’ confidence and maybe his future in Chicago. If he’s smart, he’ll lock onto DJ Moore early and often and let the good times roll. Moore is the best Bears offensive player since Matt Forte, though it’s a pretty short list.
The early slate Sunday is full of ugliness and sub-40 totals. I’ll roll with Kansas City -9.5 in a bounce-back game in New England, over 41.5 in the Battle of the Bays (Tampa at Green) and Tommy Cutlets’ Giants +6 in New Orleans.
JACKSON: Strictly from the standpoint of believing I have some sort of edge (in addition to having a sickness), I’m much more into the bowl games than I am these NFL games. I like Sam LaPorta to score a touchdown Saturday night, but I also hope he does it in the first half. I can’t imagine I’ll still be awake for the second half.
GO DEEPER
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(Top photo: Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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